Report PC2014

    US Still Wine Report and Forecast - 2014

US Wine Consumption Report
US Wine Packaging Report

After years of packaging innovations, the traditional 750ml wine bottle is more important to the domestic wine industry than ever.

Anyone who has attended wine industry conferences dedicated to packaging will have observed a broad collection of new wine containers. Most of the innovations consist of packaging materials adapted from other beverage industries. Marketing goals are presented as lowering costs, reducing weight and providing more convenience to the wine consumer. Prominently mentioned is a need to improve the accessibility of wine to new consumers, who presumably are intimidated by traditional wine packaging.

A look at current wine sales shows that traditional packaging provides the overwhelming majority of revenue from US still wine. A five year study of Nielsen Wine Scans shows that the trend towards traditional packaging is increasing, and is responsible for most of the growth seen in the wine sector.

For domestic production, Nielsen Wine Scans show volume from premium 750ml bottles increasing 41% over the past five years. Volume from Bag'n'Box and 1.5L packages have declined by -8% and -3% over the same period.

In an attempt to forecast wine packaging required in 2025, this report makes a series of estimates for future wine consumption and packaging mix. Wine consumption rates are built on historical data from 1994, 2005 and an estimate for 2014 based on 11 months of sales. Packaging mix is estimated based on a five year history of representative retail data.

The 2025 estimate is based on these five-year trends with the one adjustment of an anticipated increase in imported wines. Current sales show a slight decline in imports as a percentage of the overall mix, but wine economist appear to be united in their expectation that declining foreign consumption, coupled with currency issues, will make an increase in imports inevitable.

This report examines wine consumption levels at the state level over a 20 year period. The historic trends are applied to US Census estimates for the year 2025 to construct a forecast for future wine consumption. Trends are modified by demographic tendencies that might alter wine consumption behavior.

The dynamics of US wine consumption show a steady increase in wine consumption per capita since 1994. This trend plus a growing population in age groups with the highest consumption levels, make the 2025 estimate of 12.5 liters per person a relatively modest target. At 12.5 liters, US consumption will still be approximately one third of European averages.

Two sections are prepared covering the current trends and 2025 forecast for wine consumption and packaging mix:

US Wine Consumption Report

US Wine Packaging Report

Prepared by Peter Weber for the
Cork Quality Council 1/5/2015